Nvidia Plans Up to $100B in OpenAI: 10 Gigawatts Bind the Two Giants Together

Per Reuters and Nvidia's announcement, on September 22, 2025 Nvidia and OpenAI signed a letter of intent: at least 10 gigawatts of Nvidia systems deployed for OpenAI, with Nvidia investing up to $100 billion progressively as each gigawatt comes online, the first built on the Vera Rubin platform. Jensen Huang called it 'the biggest AI infrastructure project in history' and Nvidia shares jumped.

The circular structure — the chipmaker investing in a customer that buys its chips — also fueled debate about AI's capital loop: is demand real growth or mutual transfusion?

How to Read the Deal: LOI, Not Contract

This is a letter of intent, not a definitive agreement: the money lands in stages as each gigawatt of systems is deployed, and the "up to $100 billion" cap means it can execute below the full amount. That flexibility was later proven out: per WSJ reporting in 2026, the September plan's progress stalled, and Nvidia shifted to new investment arrangements to stay in OpenAI's fundraising. Separating "signed contracts" from "intent frameworks" is step one for reading headline numbers this large.

The Capital-Loop Debate

Supporters call it rational capacity pre-booking: chips are scarce, so binding both sides early de-risks the roadmap. Critics worry that mutually confirmed revenue inflates the bubble. The pattern recurs across this AI cycle: Microsoft's invest-plus-cloud-consumption deal with OpenAI, Oracle's ~$300 billion compute contract with OpenAI, xAI self-supplying via its Colossus cluster — capital, chips and compute loop at high speed among a handful of companies, wrapping true demand inside layers of related-party transactions.

The Hundred-Billion Staircase

Line up 2025's single-ticket compute deals and the escalation is stark: January's Stargate announcement at $500 billion over four years; September's ~$300 billion Oracle-OpenAI contract; the $100 billion Nvidia LOI the same month. What backs these numbers is power and land: 10 gigawatts is roughly the output of ten large power plants — the deeper reason Microsoft restarted Three Mile Island and everyone is racing to sign energy deals (see our related coverage).

Our Take

Reading "up to $100B" as a firm commitment is the common misread — the real signal is Nvidia using its balance sheet to lock in downstream demand: a moat, and an exposure. When your biggest customer is also your portfolio company, a chip-cycle downturn gets amplified through the equity stake. Whatever its final form, this LOI pushed the AI compute arms race into hundred-billion-dollar single tickets — and that scale is itself reshaping the industry's risk structure.